Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -172 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson's 67.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.2%) to WRs this year (64.2%).
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.