Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to notch 11.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) to wideouts this year (62.4%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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