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Justin Jefferson
NFL · Player Props
Justin Jefferson
WR · Minnesota Vikings
Receptions
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022 Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM EST
NFL Props Justin Jefferson Receptions

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -125.

Favors Over
  • The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to earn 12.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Favors Under
  • Justin Jefferson's 72.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
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