Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to garner 11.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Justin Jefferson's 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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