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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 99.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 89.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

In this week's game, Justin Jefferson is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.5 targets.

Justin Jefferson is positioned as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging an outstanding 9.92 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The Colts pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Vikings being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The Minnesota Vikings have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.1 plays per game.

While Justin Jefferson has been responsible for 35.6% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Minnesota's passing offense this week at 30.5%.

After accumulating 139.0 air yards per game last season, Justin Jefferson has gotten worse this season, now sitting at 123.0 per game.

Justin Jefferson's 86.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving skills over last season's 103.0 rate.

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