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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 81.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 77.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 28.14 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Vikings to be the 8th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.

The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 9.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

Justin Jefferson's 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 70.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.8 per game) this year.

After accumulating 139.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Jefferson has significantly declined this year, currently pacing 101.0 per game.

Justin Jefferson has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (103.0).

This year, the strong New York Jets defense has allowed a measly 110.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best in the league.

Since the start of last season, the tough Jets defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a puny 7.1 yards.

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