My Account Log Out

reorder

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

In this week's game, Justin Jefferson is projected by the model to rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.7 targets.

Justin Jefferson has compiled a staggering 127.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among WRs.

Justin Jefferson ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 72.9 figure since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 56.4 per game on average).

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Justin Jefferson's 61.8% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving ability over last year's 67.7% rate.

Justin Jefferson's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, averaging just 9.23 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 10.46 mark last season.

More Justin Jefferson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™