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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 5th-most in football.

In this game, Justin Jefferson is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.2 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Last year, the imposing 49ers defense has surrendered the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a meager 7.4 yards.

Last year, the tough 49ers pass defense has yielded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a measly 3.9 YAC.

The 49ers linebackers profile as the worst unit in the league last year in pass coverage.

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