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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 84.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 89.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.

Justin Jefferson has run a route on 99.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 55.8 per game on average).

After accruing 139.0 air yards per game last season, Justin Jefferson has seen a big decline this season, now averaging 100.0 per game.

Justin Jefferson's 85.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a substantial reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 103.0 figure.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

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