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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 81.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 82.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.

In this contest, Justin Jefferson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.3 targets.

Justin Jefferson's 79.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 70.9.

With an excellent 10.1 adjusted yards per target (86th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson has been as one of the best WRs in the game in football.

The Titans pass defense has not been good when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 6 points.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see just 125.3 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (just 55.4 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.2 per game) this year.

After averaging 139.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Jefferson has produced significantly fewer this year, currently boasting 112.0 per game.

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