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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.15 seconds per play.

The projections expect Justin Jefferson to accumulate 9.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson has totaled a massive 145.0 air yards per game last year: 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Justin Jefferson's 72.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 97th percentile for wide receivers.

The Vikings O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The New York Giants safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league last year in covering receivers.

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