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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 99.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 98.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 99.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Nick Mullens in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

The projections expect the Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Vikings offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.72 seconds per play.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Justin Jefferson's 65.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a meaningful diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 72.0% rate.

The Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.37 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

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