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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 80.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 89.5 @ +106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Nick Mullens in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the greatest rate on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

This week, Justin Jefferson is expected by the model to place in the 98th percentile among WRs with 10.5 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.0% to 68.0%.

This year, the imposing Lions pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing WRs: a puny 3.0 YAC.

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