Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 74.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
The projections expect Justin Jefferson to total 9.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 27.1% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 72.0% to 68.2%.

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