Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 89.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 89.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Justin Jefferson has run a route on 96.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63.4%) to WRs since the start of last season (63.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 7.40 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 5th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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