Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 86.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 89.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to garner 10.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Justin Jefferson has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (106.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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