Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 90.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 97.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 90.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to notch 11.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.