Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 100.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 97.5 @ -131 before it was bet up to 100.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has compiled far fewer air yards this season (106.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 67.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.2%) to WRs this year (64.2%).

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