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Justin Jefferson
NFL · Player Props
Justin Jefferson
WR · Minnesota Vikings
Receiving Yards
Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022 Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC
NFL Props Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 85.5 (-103/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 85.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 85.5 @ -124.

Favors Over
  • The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to notch 11.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Favors Under
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Justin Jefferson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
  • Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • The New York Jets defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 125.0) versus wide receivers this year.
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