Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 85.5 (-103/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 85.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 85.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to notch 11.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 125.0) versus wide receivers this year.

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