Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+106/-141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (29.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (23.3% in games he has played).
Justin Jefferson's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.2% to 75.8%.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 6th-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.00 per game this year.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
Justin Jefferson has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 67.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.