Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-133/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.2% to 76.5%.
Justin Jefferson ranks in the 82nd percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 67.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the league to wide receivers: 0.43 per game this year.

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