Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+106/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 30.8% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Justin Jefferson's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.2% to 75.5%.
Justin Jefferson grades out in the 86th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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