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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+106/-140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
  • Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 30.8% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
  • Justin Jefferson's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.2% to 75.5%.
  • Justin Jefferson grades out in the 86th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Justin Jefferson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
  • Justin Jefferson's 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
  • The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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