Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+113/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Jefferson has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.1% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.2% to 71.0%.
Justin Jefferson grades out in the 91st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.

Favors Under

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (98.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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