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Justin Jefferson
NFL · Player Props
Justin Jefferson
WR · Minnesota Vikings
Receiving TD
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022 Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC
NFL Props Justin Jefferson Receiving TD

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+113/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -150.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Justin Jefferson has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.1% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Justin Jefferson's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.2% to 71.0%.
  • Justin Jefferson grades out in the 91st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.
Favors Under
  • The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
  • Justin Jefferson has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (98.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
  • Justin Jefferson's 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 81.0.
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
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