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Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-130).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Justin Jefferson has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 30.4% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.Justin Jefferson has accumulated a monstrous 120.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wideouts.Justin Jefferson ranks in the 96th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.60 per game.The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.Justin Jefferson's 62.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 81.0.The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 6th-least passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 0.80 per game since the start of last season.
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