Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-149/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Justin Jefferson has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 35.3% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Justin Jefferson has put up a whopping 126.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's 81.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 100th percentile for WRs.
Justin Jefferson's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 65.2% to 70.4%.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.