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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-135).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.4% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.2% to 73.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Justin Jefferson has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (108.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).

Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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