Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+117/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.4% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.2% to 74.7%.
Justin Jefferson grades out in the 89th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.45 per game.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) to wideouts this year (62.4%).

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