Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.4% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.2% to 74.2%.

Favors Under

Justin Jefferson has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (108.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wideouts this year (61.9%).
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.40 per game this year.

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