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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-170).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.4% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.2% to 74.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Justin Jefferson has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (108.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).

Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wideouts this year (61.9%).

The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.40 per game this year.

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