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Justin Jefferson
NFL · Player Props
Justin Jefferson
WR · Minnesota Vikings
Receiving TD
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022 Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC
NFL Props Justin Jefferson Receiving TD

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-101/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +101 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -101.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 28.3% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
  • Justin Jefferson's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.2% to 75.1%.
  • Justin Jefferson grades out in the 89th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.44 per game.
Favors Under
  • Justin Jefferson has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (114.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
  • Justin Jefferson's 72.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
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