Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-101/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +101 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 28.3% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Justin Jefferson's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.2% to 75.1%.
Justin Jefferson grades out in the 89th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.44 per game.

Favors Under

Justin Jefferson has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (114.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 72.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.

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