Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-169).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Justin Jefferson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 24.5% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.2% to 75.5%.
Justin Jefferson ranks in the 84th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.38 per game.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Justin Jefferson has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (99.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson's 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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