Justin Jefferson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+118/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 30.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Justin Jefferson has notched a whopping 128.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's 81.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 100th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (58.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.6%).
The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.