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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+144/-190).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 5th-most in football.

When it comes to linebackers pass-rushing, New Orleans's unit has been dreadful this year, projecting as the worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-least pass-focused team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 52.3% red zone pass rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.

The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to attempt 32.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.

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