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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +161 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

This year, the poor Cardinals defense has yielded a whopping 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the biggest rate in football.

The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 2nd-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.67 per game this year.

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Arizona's group of LBs has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see just 124.0 total plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

The Chargers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.

In this week's game, Justin Herbert is projected by the model to average the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.8.

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