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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Los Angeles Chargers may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke.

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (47.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to throw 31.7 passes in this contest, on balance: the 11th-fewest among all QBs.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.6 per game) since the start of last season.

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