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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-185/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.8 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.9% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (47.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

In this game, Justin Herbert is predicted by the model to have the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 27.8.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Steelers defense since the start of last season (67.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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