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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 127.7 plays on offense run: the fewest on the slate this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

The Houston Texans defense has allowed the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.82 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.

Right now, the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (50.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.

The Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.

This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has given up a mere 63.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the lowest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Houston's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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