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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.

This week, Justin Herbert is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.3.

The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.81 seconds per snap.

With a poor 62.7% Adjusted Completion% (24th percentile) this year, Justin Herbert rates among the least on-target QBs in football.

The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 9th-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.21 per game this year.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Denver's CB corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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