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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: most in the NFL.

This year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a staggering 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-largest rate in the league.

This year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has yielded a monstrous 1.62 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 51.3% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chargers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.4 plays per game.

With a poor 62.9% Adjusted Completion% (24th percentile) this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the least on-target QBs in football.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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