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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.

This year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

This year, the weak Falcons defense has conceded a massive 1.91 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 6th-least pass-focused team in football in the red zone (51.2% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chargers.

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

With a lackluster 62.0% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Justin Herbert rates as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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