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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (41.7 per game) this year.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been gouged for the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.91 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Chargers to be the least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 51.1% red zone pass rate.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The Chargers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.

With a weak 62.6% Adjusted Completion% (23rd percentile) this year, Justin Herbert stands among the least accurate passers in the NFL.

The Ravens safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

More Justin Herbert Player Props

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