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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop.

Last year, the porous Raiders defense has allowed a colossal 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 55.6% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 49.7% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

In this week's contest, Justin Herbert is expected by the model to wind up with the 11th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.2.

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