Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
In registering a massive 36.9 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the top quarterbacks in the league (78th percentile) in this respect.
Justin Herbert has been among the best touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 1.86 per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 8th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.14 per game this year.

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