Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:02 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (60.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
With a terrific rate of 1.67 per game (83rd percentile), Justin Herbert ranks among the top TD passers in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

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