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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to attempt 39.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

Justin Herbert has been among the top touchdown passers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 1.80 per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL against the Chiefs defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 10th-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 1.17 per game this year.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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