Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The model projects Justin Herbert to attempt 38.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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