Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Justin Herbert is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.6.
With an excellent ratio of 1.82 per game (86th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the top TD throwers in football this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL against the New England Patriots defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 10th-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 1.18 per game this year.

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