Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Justin Herbert is expected by the model to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.3.
With a fantastic rate of 1.89 per game (89th percentile), Justin Herbert places among the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.
When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Green Bay's DT corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
This year, the imposing Green Bay Packers defense has yielded a measly 0.89 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

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