Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 130.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Justin Herbert is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.9.
With an outstanding ratio of 1.62 per game (79th percentile), Justin Herbert rates as one of the top TD throwers in the league this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This year, the strong Lions defense has yielded a mere 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-best rate in football.

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