Justin Herbert TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-250/+175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.5% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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