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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Justin Herbert TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.1% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.

Justin Herbert has attempted 41.8 throws per game this year, grading out in the 85th percentile among QBs.

Justin Herbert has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 2.00 per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 0.60 per game this year.

The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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